The Euro (EUR) experienced non-negligible volatility after the European Central Bank announcement on Thursday. Economists at ING analyze the EUR/USD outlook.
US NFP will determine the direction for EUR/USD
The core of the ECB’s communication did not change. The new round of projections sounded quite encouraging from an easing standpoint: inflation was revised marginally lower and projected at 2.0% in 2025, while the growth forecasts were also revised lower. However, President Christine Lagarde reiterated that the ECB is not confident enough about disinflation and that more information will be received in April and especially in June.
EUR/USD is trading close to the top of the range which is consistent with such a wide short-term rate gap (-125 bps in the two-year swap market). That means that it can be vulnerable to near-term corrections, but also that it is starting from a good level should US rates enter a decisive dive.
Today, US Nonfarm Payrolls will determine the direction for EUR/USD: expect some resistance at the key 1.1000 level should the Dollar decline further today.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
