US Dollar sees slight uptick ahead of May’s FOMC Minutes
- DXY Index trades with minor gains on Wednesday near 104.80.
- The market anticipates Fed will hold interest rates flat in June and July.
- FOMC minutes showed uncertainty amongst members on the inflation’s path but confidence that it will eventually get to the 2% target.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 104.80, showing mild gains in Wednesday’s American session. The Greenback continues to exhibit resilience, brushing off the effects of the soft inflation data reported last week, backed by the cautious words of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from May’s meeting didn’t show any fresh insights and confirmed that members are not certain on how long will the monetary policy will take to bring inflation down to 2% but that it will eventually achieve it.
Overall, the US economy is witnessing consistent growth, evident from dwindling Fed easing expectations despite softening labor and inflation figures. The hawkish stance from Fed officials suggests rate cuts are unlikely in the near future, which is holding the USD afloat.
Daily digest market movers: DXY gives up some gains following Fed minutes
- May’s FOMC meeting minutes revealed that several participants expressed uncertainty about how restrictive the policy needs to be.
- Some participants indicated a readiness to tighten policy further if risks to the outlook emerge and warrant such measures. Also, participants noted it would take longer than expected to be more confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards 2%.
- However, members expressed confidence on inflation eventually easing to the 2% long-term target.
- The CME FedWatch Tool indicates no expectation for a rate cut in June or July but a 37% chance of maintaining current policy in September.
DXY technical analysis: DXY displays conflicting signals, hinting toward a possible impending shift.
The DXY’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains flat, stationed in negative territory, suggesting the sellers might have already done the bulk of their work. In conjunction, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) offers a flat red bar histogram, further confirming the near-term bearish sentiment.
Furthermore, the bears have gained ground recently, with the index now residing below the 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA). This indicates that selling pressure has mounted in the short term, though markets await stronger signs to confirm a strengthening bearish grip.
That being said, the Dollar Index remains above the critical 100 and 200-day SMAs, hinting that bulls still maintain a grip.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
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