- EUR/USD oscillates in a tight range around 1.0300 as investors await the US NFP data for December, which will influence the Fed interest rate outlook.
- US President-elect Donald Trump is expected to declare a national economic emergency.
- The Euro gains despite traders price in four interest rate cuts by the ECB this year.
EUR/USD trades in a tight range around 1.0300 in Friday’s North American session. The major currency pair consolidates as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to the US official employment report as it will influence market expectations about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver its first interest rate cut this year.
Economists expect that fresh 160K workers were added to the labor force in December, fewer than 227K in November. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have remained steady at 4.2%. Month-on-month Average Hourly Earnings are expected to have risen at a slower pace of 0.3% from the former release of 0.4%, with annual figures growing steadily by 4%.
Signs of cooling labor market conditions would force traders to pare bets supporting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in the March meeting at their current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Meanwhile, traders are confident that the central bank will maintain the status quo later this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Ahead of the US NFP data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is flattened above 109.00. The performance of the US Dollar (USD) has remained firm as President-elect Donald Trump is expected to declare a national economic emergency to provide legal justification for preparing an import tariff plan for the nation’s allies and adversaries, CNN reported.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.05% | -0.02% | -0.11% | 0.12% | 0.15% | 0.25% | 0.14% | |
| EUR | 0.05% | 0.03% | -0.08% | 0.17% | 0.19% | 0.30% | 0.21% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | -0.03% | -0.08% | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.27% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | 0.11% | 0.08% | 0.08% | 0.24% | 0.26% | 0.35% | 0.25% | |
| CAD | -0.12% | -0.17% | -0.15% | -0.24% | 0.02% | 0.13% | 0.02% | |
| AUD | -0.15% | -0.19% | -0.16% | -0.26% | -0.02% | 0.10% | -0.00% | |
| NZD | -0.25% | -0.30% | -0.27% | -0.35% | -0.13% | -0.10% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.14% | -0.21% | -0.17% | -0.25% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD consolidates ahead of US NFP data
- EUR/USD is expected to be purely driven by the US Dollar on Friday as the US NFP data is on the horizon. Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) is outperforming against a majority of its peers, except the Japanese Yen (JPY). The Euro rises even though traders have priced in four interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB), which will come in every meeting by summer.
- ECB policymakers are comfortable with firm dovish bets as inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are broadly under control. However, price pressures rose expectedly in December. On Wednesday, ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of France François Villeroy said that price pressures were expected to tick higher in December, however, interest rates will continue heading towards the neutral rate “without a slowdown in the pace by summer” if the upcoming data confirm that the “pullback in price pressures won’t continue”.
- Meanwhile, a weak Eurozone economic outlook has also boosted bets supporting more interest rate cuts. Investors expect the old continent to face a trade war with the US as incoming policies from President-elect Donald Trump will be highly protectionist and weigh on the Eurozone’s export sector.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD is broadly weak as 20-week EMA slops downwards
EUR/USD trades near the key support plotted from the September 2022 high of 1.0200 on the weekly chart. The outlook of the major currency pair is broadly bearish as the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0595 is declining.
The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides to near 30.00, indicating a strong downside momentum. However, a slight recovery cannot be ruled out as the momentum oscillator has turned oversold.
Looking down, the pair could find support near the round level of 1.0100. Conversely, the January 6 high of 1.0437 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
