Oil holds gain as traders weigh escalating geopolitical tensions

Oil held a gain as investors weighed the potential fallout from rising geopolitical tensions from Yemen to Russia.

Brent crude traded above $86 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate was near $82. Houthi militants have ramped up their attacks on ships off Yemen recently, while the BBC reported that Russia has blamed the US for a missile strike on occupied Crimea and warned of “consequences.”

Implied volatility for Brent has edged higher on the simmering geopolitical risk, including upcoming elections in Iran and in France, although it still remains near the lowest level in five years.

Oil is on track for a monthly gain, with prompt time spreads widening in a bullish backwardation structure, signaling tightening supply. Traders will be watching measures of inflation and other economic data this week for clues on the path for monetary policy, which may impact crude prices.

Other parts of the market are showing strength. Money managers registered the biggest-ever weekly addition in net-bullish bets in ICE gasoil, Europe’s diesel benchmark. The same gauge for Brent futures and options rose by the most since October.

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